Da Hawg Frog Blog

I remember back in the 1970s when I was stationed in Germany how many mopeds and motor-scooters were on the roads. I used to drive a deuce and a half to work in the morning. In the back I carried a dozen of my fellow soldiers. As we would wind through the traffic circles in the little town I was stationed outside of I felt like a behemoth in the midst of lilliputian motorists. Everywhere you looked there were gas sipping motorbikes. In the 70s gas was more expensive in Europe than it is in the United States today.

In the past couple years we have seen a tremendous growth in the motorcycling community on this side of the pond. It is not all because people are suddenly becoming motorcycle enthusiasts. Many are being driven to it by the high prices of gas. And yet even with the increasing numbers of bikes on the road the economy has taken a nose dive and sales are down.

The dollar has lost 26% of its value against the euro and 11% of its value against the yen since March 2003. Add escalating costs for the metals, plastics and other commodities used to manufacture motorcycles and the fuel needed to transport foreign models to the U.S. market, and you’ve got upward price pressures for the European and Japanese manufacturers in particular. That has makers looking to cut manufacturing costs rather than raise retail prices for consumers who, in the U.S., are continuing to tighten their belts.

Consumer prices are up. The stock market is down. The dollar has plummeted. And credit is tightening. So what does that mean for motorcycles — not only future sales, but also new model development, pricing and financing? Well, it appears the bad news has some good mixed in.

On the up side, motorcycle sales in 2007 were over the 1-million mark for the fifth straight year. Battery and tire sales indicate that ridership and enthusiasm for the sport remain high. The down side is that sales in 2007 failed to increase after 14 consecutive years of gains and were lower than in 2006. By how much, the Motorcycle Industry Council won’t say until summer, when it has complete sales figures. But some manufacturers’ representatives have estimated an 8% to 10% decline. The U.S. Department of Commerce, however, puts the decrease at 2.2% for the year. (Source: LA Times).

But unlike our European counterparts Americans like bigger bikes. The number of small, gas sipping motorcycles on our roads is in a decline. People are opting out for bigger bikes with more horsepower and speed. But even the big bikes, like Harley Davidson are feeling the heat.

Particularly hard hit have been sales of small-displacement dirt bikes, which have seen larger-than-average losses, and Harley-Davidson, which has taken a 21% hit on its stock since the start of 2008, as of Tuesday’s close. (Source: LA Times).

But when we examine gas prices across the globe today our situation does not look nearly as bad as our brothers in Europe. As long as the petro dollar is still in effect we will reap the benefits of cheaper gas. But once the OPEC nations decide to go to the petro euro the bottom is going to fall out of our economy and we will find our selves in the same situation as many foreign countries have been for decades. Paying through the nose for gas and being forced to downsize our vehicles or go broke. Compare what we pay to the rest of the world -

Netherlands Amsterdam $6.48
Norway Oslo $6.27
Italy Milan $5.96
Denmark Copenhagen $5.93
Belgium Brussels $5.91
Sweden Stockholm $5.80
United Kingdom London $5.79
Germany Frankfurt $5.57
France Paris $5.54
Portugal Lisbon $5.35
Hungary Budapest $4.94
Luxembourg $4.82
Croatia Zagreb $4.81
Ireland Dublin $4.78
Switzerland Geneva $4.74
Spain Madrid $4.55
Japan Tokyo $4.24
Czech Republic Prague $4.19
Romania Bucharest $4.09
Andorra $4.08
Estonia Tallinn $3.62
Bulgaria Sofia $3.52
Brazil Brasilia $3.12
Cuba Havana $3.03
Taiwan Taipei $2.84
Lebanon Beirut $2.63
South Africa Johannesburg $2.62
Nicaragua Managua $2.61
Panama Panama City $2.19
Russia Moscow $2.10
Puerto Rico San Juan $1.74
Saudi Arabia Riyadh $0.91
Kuwait Kuwait City $0.78
Egypt Cairo $0.65
Nigeria Lagos $0.38
Venezuela Caracas $0.12(Source: air-inc.com)

It looks like much of the new owners of motorcycles in this country are being driven not by the love of the sport, but rather by the economics of the times. Perhaps this is one of the reasons we’ve seen such an increase in motorcycle accidents and death. Thousands of inexperienced riders trying to beat the expenses of filling their Hummers and pickups by hitting the roads on bikes they are unfamiliar with. If trends continue and gas goes higher we may find ourselves in a situation much like it is in Europe. Streets will be clogged with small bikes. Then those still driving their big gas guzzling SUVs will be dodging the darting mini bikes and scooters in their rush from gas station to gas station.

John McCain is stumping in Florida right now. Unlike the Democrats in this state who’s votes won’t count for anything because they will have not delegates seated in the convention, the Republicans are going to pay attention to the voters. With Florida’s enormous veteran population, second only to California, John McCain is counting on a large turn out and victory.

“From here to Key West, Florida is one of the most patriotic states in America and that is why I am very proud to be here,” McCain says as he courts a constituency critical to his chances in Florida’s GOP presidential primary Tuesday.

Consider the numbers: Florida is home to an estimated 1.7 million veterans, second only to California. And veterans are a key element in McCain’s political strategy. (Source: CNN)

John McCain may very well carry the coveted veteran’s vote in Florida. Everyone is aware of his service to this country during the Vietnam war. They also know about his time spent in the Hanoi Hilton. He has a military record that is hard to dispute. He is also the only major candidate with sons serving in the military.

The son of an admiral, McCain is the only leading candidate in either party to have children who have served in the military. In the senator’s case, one son is in Iraq, the other at the Naval Academy. They get a mention in virtually every introduction of the candidate by wife Cindy McCain.

“I want my sons back like everybody else,” she says in Fort Walton Beach. “But I want them back having done their duty and with honor and in dignity and most of all in victory.”

But Senator McCain has one major flaw. It is his stance on Illegal Immigration. He supports granting amnesty and legalizing the illegals. As odd as it sounds he is walking hand in hand with Senator Ted Kennedy on this one. Yet, this stand is costing him dearly. Many are now referring to him as “Amnesty John”.

In 2007, much of America’s political oxygen was consumed by the two I-words: Iraq and immigration. If the former was supposed to boost John McCain’s GOP primary campaign, the latter was supposed to torpedo it. Not only did the Arizona senator favor a relatively liberal immigration policy, he had cosponsored legislation with left-wing lion Ted Kennedy to establish a temporary worker program and offer millions of illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. In the summer of 2005, the cover of National Review had assailed McCain as “Amnesty John.” In the late spring and early summer of 2007, McCain supported a comprehensive immigration reform bill that provoked furious opposition from conservative talk radio and the Republican base. It nearly destroyed his presidential bid. (Source: CBS).

His position on this one issue alone is enough to make many of us look elsewhere for a candidate. A candidate who puts America and Americans first. We don’t need a bunch of people who broke our laws to get here going to the front of the line and being legalized in front of all those legal immigrants who followed the law.

Only a Washington insider wearing blinders could possibly take the position John and Ted have taken. They are out of touch with their constituents and what is happening in their own states.